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CSKA Pomir vs Khujand — Vysshaya Liga 2017

CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
FT
1 – 0
Khujand
Khujand
8/12/2017Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 16Stadion Politekhnikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

CSKA Pomir40%
×Draw24%
Khujand36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Pomir
1.55
Khujand
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 34 away

creates per match

CSKA Pomir
1.96
Khujand
1.44

allows per match

CSKA Pomir
1.48
Khujand
1.15

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par
Khujand+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Khujand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw
64%
CSKA Pomir or Khujand
76%
Draw or Khujand
60%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
20%
Khujand wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
79%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
46%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
20%
Khujand 1+ goals
77%
Khujand 2+ goals
43%
Khujand 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
53%
Khujand (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Khujand away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 1.96 + Khujand defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.55

Khujand attack 1.44 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more
40%
level
24%
Khujand scores more
36%

CSKA Pomir at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: CSKA Pomir 1–0 Khujand

CSKA Pomir beat Khujand 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on August 12, 2017.

The match was played at Stadion Politekhnikum in Dushanbe.