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Tobermore United vs Donegal Celtic — Premier Intermediate League 2017

Tobermore United
Tobermore United
FT
4 – 3
Donegal Celtic
Donegal Celtic
4/14/2018Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 17Fortwilliam Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tobermore United57%
×Draw20%
Donegal Celtic24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tobermore United
2.35
Donegal Celtic
1.48

Tobermore United creates 59% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tobermore United
2.50
Donegal Celtic
1.40

allows per match

Tobermore United
1.57
Donegal Celtic
2.20

finishing

Tobermore United+0.00on par
Donegal Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tobermore United ↓

Donegal Celtic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Tobermore United or draw
76%
Tobermore United or Donegal Celtic
80%
Draw or Donegal Celtic
43%

Winning margin

Tobermore United wins by 2+
35%
Donegal Celtic wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tobermore United 1+ goals
90%
Tobermore United 2+ goals
68%
Tobermore United 3+ goals
41%
Donegal Celtic 1+ goals
77%
Donegal Celtic 2+ goals
43%
Donegal Celtic 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tobermore United (draw refunded)
70%
Donegal Celtic (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tobermore United at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Donegal Celtic away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tobermore United attack 2.50 + Donegal Celtic defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Donegal Celtic attack 1.40 + Tobermore United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tobermore United scores more
57%
level
20%
Donegal Celtic scores more
24%

Tobermore United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tobermore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tobermore United vs Donegal Celtic

Tobermore United beat Donegal Celtic 4-3 in Premier Intermediate League on April 14, 2018.

The match was played at Fortwilliam Park in Tobermore.