Collado Villalba 2–2 Torrejón: Result & Stats

Collado Villalba

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Torrejón

2/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 19Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Collado Villalba38%

×Draw25%

Torrejón37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Collado VillalbaExpected goals in this matchTorrejón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.40

Collado Villalba

1.43

Torrejón

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 115 away

1.35

creates per match

1.25

1.55

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Collado Villalba

1.35

Torrejón

1.25

allows per match

Collado Villalba

1.55

Torrejón

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Torrejón+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

Torrejón →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw

63%

Collado Villalba or Torrejón

75%

Draw or Torrejón

62%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+

18%

Torrejón wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals

76%

Collado Villalba 2+ goals

42%

Collado Villalba 3+ goals

17%

Torrejón 1+ goals

75%

Torrejón 2+ goals

41%

Torrejón 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)

51%

Torrejón (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

Torrejón away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + Torrejón defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Torrejón attack 1.25 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Collado Villalba scores more

38%

level

25%

Torrejón scores more

37%

Collado Villalba at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff