Collado Villalba 2–1 Real Madrid III

Collado Villalba

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madrid III

5/12/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 34Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Collado Villalba28%

×Draw26%

Real Madrid III46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Collado VillalbaExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.45

Collado Villalba

1.06

Real Madrid III

1.45

Real Madrid III creates 37% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 17 away

1.35

creates per match

1.35

1.55

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Collado Villalba

1.35

Real Madrid III

1.35

allows per match

Collado Villalba

1.55

Real Madrid III

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

Real Madrid III →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw

54%

Collado Villalba or Real Madrid III

74%

Draw or Real Madrid III

72%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+

10%

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals

65%

Collado Villalba 2+ goals

29%

Collado Villalba 3+ goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

77%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

42%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)

38%

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

Real Madrid III away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + Real Madrid III defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.06

Real Madrid III attack 1.35 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Collado Villalba scores more

28%

level

26%

Real Madrid III scores more

46%

Real Madrid III at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff