Collado Villalba 0–1 Real Aranjuez: Result & Stats

Collado Villalba

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Aranjuez

2/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 19Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Collado Villalba52%

×Draw23%

Real Aranjuez25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Collado VillalbaExpected goals in this matchReal Aranjuez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.18

Collado Villalba

1.82

Real Aranjuez

1.18

Collado Villalba creates 54% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 31 away

1.35

creates per match

0.81

1.55

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Collado Villalba

1.35

Real Aranjuez

0.81

allows per match

Collado Villalba

1.55

Real Aranjuez

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

Real Aranjuez →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw

75%

Collado Villalba or Real Aranjuez

77%

Draw or Real Aranjuez

48%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+

29%

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals

84%

Collado Villalba 2+ goals

54%

Collado Villalba 3+ goals

27%

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals

69%

Real Aranjuez 2+ goals

33%

Real Aranjuez 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)

68%

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.82

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Collado Villalba scores more

52%

level

23%

Real Aranjuez scores more

25%

Collado Villalba at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Collado Villalba 0–1 Real Aranjuez

Real Aranjuez beat Collado Villalba 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba in Collado Villalba.

Collado Villalba vs Real Aranjuez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Collado Villalba 0–1 Real Aranjuez