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Collado Villalba vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Leganés II
Leganés II
2/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Collado Villalba30%
×Draw24%
Leganés II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collado Villalba
1.33
Leganés II
1.72

Leganés II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 79 away

creates per match

Collado Villalba
1.35
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

Collado Villalba
1.55
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw
53%
Collado Villalba or Leganés II
76%
Draw or Leganés II
70%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+
13%
Leganés II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals
74%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
38%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
15%
Leganés II 1+ goals
82%
Leganés II 2+ goals
51%
Leganés II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
39%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Collado Villalba scores more
30%
level
24%
Leganés II scores more
47%

Leganés II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Collado Villalba 1 – 1 Leganés II

Collado Villalba and Leganés II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba in Collado Villalba.