Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Collado Villalba vs Galapagar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Galapagar
Galapagar
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 23Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Collado Villalba39%
×Draw26%
Galapagar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collado Villalba
1.36
Galapagar
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 86 away

creates per match

Collado Villalba
1.35
Galapagar
0.99

allows per match

Collado Villalba
1.55
Galapagar
1.37

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par
Galapagar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

Galapagar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw
65%
Collado Villalba or Galapagar
74%
Draw or Galapagar
61%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+
18%
Galapagar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals
74%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
39%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
16%
Galapagar 1+ goals
72%
Galapagar 2+ goals
36%
Galapagar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
53%
Galapagar (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

Galapagar away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.37 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + Galapagar defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.36

Galapagar attack 0.99 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Collado Villalba scores more
39%
level
26%
Galapagar scores more
35%

Collado Villalba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Collado Villalba 1–2 Galapagar

Galapagar beat Collado Villalba 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba in Collado Villalba.