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Collado Villalba vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
El Álamo
El Álamo
9/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Collado Villalba46%
×Draw25%
El Álamo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collado Villalba
1.59
El Álamo
1.20

Collado Villalba creates 33% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 47 away

creates per match

Collado Villalba
1.35
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Collado Villalba
1.55
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw
71%
Collado Villalba or El Álamo
75%
Draw or El Álamo
54%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+
24%
El Álamo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals
80%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
47%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
21%
El Álamo 1+ goals
70%
El Álamo 2+ goals
34%
El Álamo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
62%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.59

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Collado Villalba scores more
46%
level
25%
El Álamo scores more
29%

Collado Villalba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Collado Villalba 2–1 El Álamo

Collado Villalba beat El Álamo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba in Collado Villalba.