Collado Villalba 2–3 Colonia Moscardó

Collado Villalba

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Colonia Moscardó

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 10Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Collado Villalba46%

×Draw26%

Colonia Moscardó28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Collado VillalbaExpected goals in this matchColonia Moscardó

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.13

Collado Villalba

1.52

Colonia Moscardó

1.13

Collado Villalba creates 35% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 37 away

1.35

creates per match

0.70

1.55

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Collado Villalba

1.35

Colonia Moscardó

0.70

allows per match

Collado Villalba

1.55

Colonia Moscardó

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

Colonia Moscardó →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw

72%

Collado Villalba or Colonia Moscardó

74%

Draw or Colonia Moscardó

54%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+

23%

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals

78%

Collado Villalba 2+ goals

45%

Collado Villalba 3+ goals

20%

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals

68%

Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals

31%

Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)

62%

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

Colonia Moscardó away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Colonia Moscardó attack 0.70 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Collado Villalba scores more

46%

level

26%

Colonia Moscardó scores more

28%

Collado Villalba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Collado Villalba vs Colonia Moscardó

Colonia Moscardó beat Collado Villalba 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba in Collado Villalba.

Collado Villalba vs Colonia Moscardó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Collado Villalba vs Colonia Moscardó