Collado Villalba 1–0 Carabanchel: Result & Stats

Collado Villalba

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Carabanchel

2/2/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Collado Villalba41%

×Draw26%

Carabanchel33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Collado VillalbaExpected goals in this matchCarabanchel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.25

Collado Villalba

1.44

Carabanchel

1.25

Collado Villalba creates 15% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 82 away

1.35

creates per match

0.95

1.55

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Collado Villalba

1.35

Carabanchel

0.95

allows per match

Collado Villalba

1.55

Carabanchel

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Carabanchel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

Carabanchel →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw

67%

Collado Villalba or Carabanchel

74%

Draw or Carabanchel

59%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+

20%

Carabanchel wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals

76%

Collado Villalba 2+ goals

42%

Collado Villalba 3+ goals

18%

Carabanchel 1+ goals

71%

Carabanchel 2+ goals

36%

Carabanchel 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)

56%

Carabanchel (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

Carabanchel away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + Carabanchel defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.44

Carabanchel attack 0.95 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Collado Villalba scores more

41%

level

26%

Carabanchel scores more

33%

Collado Villalba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Collado Villalba vs Carabanchel

Collado Villalba beat Carabanchel 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba in Collado Villalba.

Collado Villalba vs Carabanchel — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Collado Villalba vs Carabanchel