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Collado Villalba vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
12/4/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 12Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Collado Villalba35%
×Draw25%
Alcobendas Sport40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collado Villalba
1.33
Alcobendas Sport
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 117 away

creates per match

Collado Villalba
1.35
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

Collado Villalba
1.55
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw
60%
Collado Villalba or Alcobendas Sport
75%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
65%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+
16%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals
74%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
38%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
15%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
76%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
42%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
47%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Collado Villalba scores more
35%
level
25%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
40%

Alcobendas Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Collado Villalba vs Alcobendas Sport

Collado Villalba beat Alcobendas Sport 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba in Collado Villalba.