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Alcobendas Sport vs Collado Villalba — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
4/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Alcobendas Sport36%
×Draw28%
Collado Villalba35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcobendas Sport
1.17
Collado Villalba
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 49 away

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.30
Collado Villalba
1.02

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.28
Collado Villalba
1.04

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par
Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Collado Villalba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw
65%
Alcobendas Sport or Collado Villalba
72%
Draw or Collado Villalba
64%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
15%
Collado Villalba wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
69%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
33%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
11%
Collado Villalba 1+ goals
68%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
32%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
51%
Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Collado Villalba away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Collado Villalba defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Collado Villalba attack 1.02 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more
36%
level
28%
Collado Villalba scores more
35%

Alcobendas Sport at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcobendas Sport vs Collado Villalba

Alcobendas Sport beat Collado Villalba 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva in Majadahonda.