Collado Villalba 0–3 AD Parla: Result & Stats

Collado Villalba

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

AD Parla

2/18/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Collado Villalba43%

×Draw25%

AD Parla32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Collado VillalbaExpected goals in this matchAD Parla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.27

Collado Villalba

1.50

AD Parla

1.27

Collado Villalba creates 18% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 98 away

1.35

creates per match

0.99

1.55

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Collado Villalba

1.35

AD Parla

0.99

allows per match

Collado Villalba

1.55

AD Parla

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par

AD Parla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

AD Parla →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw

68%

Collado Villalba or AD Parla

75%

Draw or AD Parla

57%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+

21%

AD Parla wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals

78%

Collado Villalba 2+ goals

44%

Collado Villalba 3+ goals

19%

AD Parla 1+ goals

72%

AD Parla 2+ goals

36%

AD Parla 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)

57%

AD Parla (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

AD Parla away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.65 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + AD Parla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

AD Parla attack 0.99 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Collado Villalba scores more

43%

level

25%

AD Parla scores more

32%

Collado Villalba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Collado Villalba vs AD Parla

AD Parla beat Collado Villalba 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba in Collado Villalba.

Collado Villalba vs AD Parla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Collado Villalba vs AD Parla