Colindres 3–1 Tropezón: Result & Stats

Colindres

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Tropezón

11/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Campos del Carmen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Colindres28%

×Draw27%

Tropezón45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColindresExpected goals in this matchTropezón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.40

Colindres

1.04

Tropezón

1.40

Tropezón creates 35% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 94 away

0.98

creates per match

1.55

1.24

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Colindres

0.98

Tropezón

1.55

allows per match

Colindres

1.24

Tropezón

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colindres+0.00on par

Tropezón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colindres ↓

Tropezón →

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Colindres or draw

55%

Colindres or Tropezón

73%

Draw or Tropezón

72%

Winning margin

Colindres wins by 2+

10%

Tropezón wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Colindres 1+ goals

65%

Colindres 2+ goals

28%

Colindres 3+ goals

Tropezón 1+ goals

75%

Tropezón 2+ goals

41%

Tropezón 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Colindres (draw refunded)

38%

Tropezón (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colindres at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

Tropezón away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colindres attack 0.98 + Tropezón defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Tropezón attack 1.55 + Colindres defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colindres scores more

28%

level

27%

Tropezón scores more

45%

Tropezón at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff