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Colindres vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Colindres
Colindres
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
2/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Campos del Carmen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Colindres32%
×Draw26%
Atlético Albericia42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colindres
1.21
Atlético Albericia
1.41

Atlético Albericia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 108 away

creates per match

Colindres
0.98
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Colindres
1.24
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Colindres+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colindres ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colindres or draw
58%
Colindres or Atlético Albericia
74%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
68%

Winning margin

Colindres wins by 2+
13%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Colindres 1+ goals
70%
Colindres 2+ goals
34%
Colindres 3+ goals
12%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
76%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Colindres (draw refunded)
44%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colindres at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colindres attack 0.98 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Colindres defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Colindres scores more
32%
level
26%
Atlético Albericia scores more
42%

Atlético Albericia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colindres vs Atlético Albericia

Atlético Albericia beat Colindres 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Campos del Carmen in Colindres.