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Colina vs Fernández Vial — Segunda División 2020

Colina
Colina
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
11/6/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Colina33%
×Draw26%
Fernández Vial41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colina
1.23
Fernández Vial
1.39

Fernández Vial creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 38 away

creates per match

Colina
1.46
Fernández Vial
1.21

allows per match

Colina
1.57
Fernández Vial
1.00

finishing

Colina+0.00on par
Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colina ↓

Fernández Vial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colina or draw
59%
Colina or Fernández Vial
74%
Draw or Fernández Vial
67%

Winning margin

Colina wins by 2+
14%
Fernández Vial wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Colina 1+ goals
71%
Colina 2+ goals
35%
Colina 3+ goals
13%
Fernández Vial 1+ goals
75%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
40%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Colina (draw refunded)
45%
Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colina at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colina attack 1.46 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fernández Vial attack 1.21 + Colina defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colina scores more
33%
level
26%
Fernández Vial scores more
41%

Fernández Vial at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colina vs Fernández Vial

Fernández Vial beat Colina 3-0 in Segunda División on November 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida in Santiago de Chile.