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Colina vs Deportes Vallenar — Segunda División 2020

Colina
Colina
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportes Vallenar
Deportes Vallenar
1/9/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 18Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Colina49%
×Draw25%
Deportes Vallenar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colina
1.59
Deportes Vallenar
1.10

Colina creates 45% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

creates per match

Colina
1.46
Deportes Vallenar
0.64

allows per match

Colina
1.57
Deportes Vallenar
1.73

finishing

Colina+0.00on par
Deportes Vallenar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colina ↓

Deportes Vallenar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Colina or draw
74%
Colina or Deportes Vallenar
75%
Draw or Deportes Vallenar
51%

Winning margin

Colina wins by 2+
25%
Deportes Vallenar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colina 1+ goals
80%
Colina 2+ goals
47%
Colina 3+ goals
21%
Deportes Vallenar 1+ goals
67%
Deportes Vallenar 2+ goals
30%
Deportes Vallenar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Colina (draw refunded)
65%
Deportes Vallenar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colina at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

Deportes Vallenar away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colina attack 1.46 + Deportes Vallenar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Deportes Vallenar attack 0.64 + Colina defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colina scores more
49%
level
25%
Deportes Vallenar scores more
26%

Colina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colina vs Deportes Vallenar

Colina beat Deportes Vallenar 2-0 in Segunda División on January 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida in Santiago de Chile.