Coleraine FC 3–1 H&W Welders: Result & Stats

Coleraine FC

FT

3 – 1

H&W Welders

8/8/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Coleraine FC74%

×Draw16%

H&W Welders11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coleraine FCExpected goals in this matchH&W Welders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

0.89

Coleraine FC

2.62

H&W Welders

0.89

Coleraine FC creates 194% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.40

creates per match

1.17

0.60

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Coleraine FC

2.40

H&W Welders

1.17

allows per match

Coleraine FC

0.60

H&W Welders

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coleraine FC+0.00on par

H&W Welders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coleraine FC ↓

H&W Welders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Coleraine FC or draw

89%

Coleraine FC or H&W Welders

84%

Draw or H&W Welders

26%

Winning margin

Coleraine FC wins by 2+

52%

H&W Welders wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Coleraine FC 1+ goals

93%

Coleraine FC 2+ goals

73%

Coleraine FC 3+ goals

48%

H&W Welders 1+ goals

59%

H&W Welders 2+ goals

22%

H&W Welders 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Coleraine FC (draw refunded)

87%

H&W Welders (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coleraine FC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

H&W Welders away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coleraine FC attack 2.40 + H&W Welders defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.62

H&W Welders attack 1.17 + Coleraine FC defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Coleraine FC scores more

74%

level

16%

H&W Welders scores more

11%

Coleraine FC at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Coleraine FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff