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Colegios Diocesanos vs Salamanca UDS — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 32Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos17%
×Draw24%
Salamanca UDS59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegios Diocesanos
0.76
Salamanca UDS
1.65

Salamanca UDS creates 117% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
Salamanca UDS
1.82

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos
1.47
Salamanca UDS
0.59

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw
41%
Colegios Diocesanos or Salamanca UDS
76%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
83%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
5%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
53%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
18%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
4%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
81%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
49%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
23%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.76

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more
17%
level
24%
Salamanca UDS scores more
59%

Salamanca UDS at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colegios Diocesanos 0 – 1 Salamanca UDS

Salamanca UDS beat Colegios Diocesanos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B in Ávila.