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Colegios Diocesanos vs Ribert — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ribert
Ribert
10/30/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 10Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos42%
×Draw26%
Ribert32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegios Diocesanos
1.41
Ribert
1.21

Colegios Diocesanos creates 17% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
Ribert
0.94

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos
1.47
Ribert
1.88

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par
Ribert+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

Ribert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw
68%
Colegios Diocesanos or Ribert
74%
Draw or Ribert
58%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
20%
Ribert wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
76%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
41%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
17%
Ribert 1+ goals
70%
Ribert 2+ goals
34%
Ribert 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
56%
Ribert (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Ribert away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + Ribert defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ribert attack 0.94 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more
42%
level
26%
Ribert scores more
32%

Colegios Diocesanos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Colegios Diocesanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Colegios Diocesanos 1–1 Ribert

Colegios Diocesanos and Ribert drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B in Ávila.