Colegios Diocesanos 2–1 Real Burgos: Result & Stats

Colegios Diocesanos

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real Burgos

2/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 13Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos41%

×Draw26%

Real Burgos33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colegios DiocesanosExpected goals in this matchReal Burgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.23

Colegios Diocesanos

1.42

Real Burgos

1.23

Colegios Diocesanos creates 15% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 30 away

0.94

creates per match

1.00

1.47

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos

0.94

Real Burgos

1.00

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos

1.47

Real Burgos

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

Real Burgos →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw

67%

Colegios Diocesanos or Real Burgos

74%

Draw or Real Burgos

59%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+

20%

Real Burgos wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals

76%

Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals

41%

Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals

17%

Real Burgos 1+ goals

71%

Real Burgos 2+ goals

35%

Real Burgos 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)

56%

Real Burgos (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.42

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more

41%

level

26%

Real Burgos scores more

33%

Colegios Diocesanos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Colegios Diocesanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colegios Diocesanos vs Real Burgos

Colegios Diocesanos beat Real Burgos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 24, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu A in Ávila.

Colegios Diocesanos vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Colegios Diocesanos vs Real Burgos