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Colegios Diocesanos vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
2/7/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 21Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos35%
×Draw27%
La Virgen del Camino38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegios Diocesanos
1.19
La Virgen del Camino
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 111 away

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos
1.47
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw
62%
Colegios Diocesanos or La Virgen del Camino
73%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
65%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
14%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
70%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
33%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
12%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
72%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
36%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
48%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more
35%
level
27%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
38%

La Virgen del Camino at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "La Virgen del Camino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colegios Diocesanos vs La Virgen del Camino

La Virgen del Camino beat Colegios Diocesanos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 7, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B in Ávila.