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Colegios Diocesanos vs Guijuelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guijuelo
Guijuelo
10/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 8Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos24%
×Draw27%
Guijuelo49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
Guijuelo
1.45

Guijuelo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 35 away

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
Guijuelo
1.43

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos
1.47
Guijuelo
0.94

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par
Guijuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

Guijuelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw
51%
Colegios Diocesanos or Guijuelo
73%
Draw or Guijuelo
76%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
8%
Guijuelo wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
61%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
24%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
7%
Guijuelo 1+ goals
77%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
42%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
33%
Guijuelo (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Guijuelo away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + Guijuelo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more
24%
level
27%
Guijuelo scores more
49%

Guijuelo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colegios Diocesanos 1 – 1 Guijuelo

Colegios Diocesanos and Guijuelo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B in Ávila.