Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Colegios Diocesanos vs Cultural Cebrereña — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Cebrereña
Cultural Cebrereña
2/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 16Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos42%
×Draw26%
Cultural Cebrereña31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegios Diocesanos
1.41
Cultural Cebrereña
1.18

Colegios Diocesanos creates 19% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
Cultural Cebrereña
0.88

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos
1.47
Cultural Cebrereña
1.88

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par
Cultural Cebrereña+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

Cultural Cebrereña →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw
69%
Colegios Diocesanos or Cultural Cebrereña
74%
Draw or Cultural Cebrereña
58%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
20%
Cultural Cebrereña wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
76%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
41%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
17%
Cultural Cebrereña 1+ goals
69%
Cultural Cebrereña 2+ goals
33%
Cultural Cebrereña 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
57%
Cultural Cebrereña (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Cultural Cebrereña away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + Cultural Cebrereña defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.41

Cultural Cebrereña attack 0.88 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more
42%
level
26%
Cultural Cebrereña scores more
31%

Colegios Diocesanos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Colegios Diocesanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Colegios Diocesanos 3–0 Cultural Cebrereña

Colegios Diocesanos beat Cultural Cebrereña 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu A in Ávila.