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Colegios Diocesanos vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
11/11/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 10Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos37%
×Draw27%
Becerril Campos36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegios Diocesanos
1.26
Becerril Campos
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 97 away

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos
1.47
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw
64%
Colegios Diocesanos or Becerril Campos
73%
Draw or Becerril Campos
63%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
16%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
72%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
36%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
13%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
71%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
36%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
50%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.26

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more
37%
level
27%
Becerril Campos scores more
36%

Colegios Diocesanos at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Colegios Diocesanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colegios Diocesanos 0 – 1 Becerril Campos

Becerril Campos beat Colegios Diocesanos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B in Ávila.