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Colegios Diocesanos vs Atlético Astorga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Astorga
Atlético Astorga
2/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 21Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos25%
×Draw28%
Atlético Astorga47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegios Diocesanos
0.92
Atlético Astorga
1.37

Atlético Astorga creates 49% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 93 away

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
Atlético Astorga
1.27

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos
1.47
Atlético Astorga
0.89

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par
Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

Atlético Astorga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw
53%
Colegios Diocesanos or Atlético Astorga
72%
Draw or Atlético Astorga
75%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
9%
Atlético Astorga wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
60%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
23%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
7%
Atlético Astorga 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Astorga 2+ goals
40%
Atlético Astorga 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
35%
Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Atlético Astorga away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Atlético Astorga attack 1.27 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more
25%
level
28%
Atlético Astorga scores more
47%

Atlético Astorga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Colegios Diocesanos 0–1 Atlético Astorga

Atlético Astorga beat Colegios Diocesanos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B in Ávila.