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Colegiales vs San Martín Burzaco — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Colegiales
Colegiales
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Martín Burzaco
San Martín Burzaco
3/2/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 6Estadio de Colegiales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Colegiales49%
×Draw29%
San Martín Burzaco22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegiales
1.28
San Martín Burzaco
0.76

Colegiales creates 68% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 54 away

creates per match

Colegiales
1.18
San Martín Burzaco
0.74

allows per match

Colegiales
0.77
San Martín Burzaco
1.39

finishing

Colegiales+0.00on par
San Martín Burzaco+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegiales ↓

San Martín Burzaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Colegiales or draw
78%
Colegiales or San Martín Burzaco
71%
Draw or San Martín Burzaco
51%

Winning margin

Colegiales wins by 2+
23%
San Martín Burzaco wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Colegiales 1+ goals
72%
Colegiales 2+ goals
37%
Colegiales 3+ goals
14%
San Martín Burzaco 1+ goals
53%
San Martín Burzaco 2+ goals
18%
San Martín Burzaco 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Colegiales (draw refunded)
69%
San Martín Burzaco (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegiales at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.77 · 109 matches

San Martín Burzaco away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegiales attack 1.18 + San Martín Burzaco defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

San Martín Burzaco attack 0.74 + Colegiales defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colegiales scores more
49%
level
29%
San Martín Burzaco scores more
22%

Colegiales at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colegiales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colegiales vs San Martín Burzaco

Colegiales and San Martín Burzaco drew 1-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Colegiales in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.