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Colegiales vs Acassuso — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Colegiales
Colegiales
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Acassuso
Acassuso
7/27/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 7Estadio de Colegiales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Colegiales41%
×Draw31%
Acassuso28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegiales
1.10
Acassuso
0.86

Colegiales creates 28% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 131 away

creates per match

Colegiales
1.18
Acassuso
0.95

allows per match

Colegiales
0.77
Acassuso
1.02

finishing

Colegiales+0.00on par
Acassuso+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegiales ↓

Acassuso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Colegiales or draw
72%
Colegiales or Acassuso
69%
Draw or Acassuso
59%

Winning margin

Colegiales wins by 2+
17%
Acassuso wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Colegiales 1+ goals
67%
Colegiales 2+ goals
30%
Colegiales 3+ goals
10%
Acassuso 1+ goals
58%
Acassuso 2+ goals
21%
Acassuso 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Colegiales (draw refunded)
59%
Acassuso (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegiales at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.77 · 109 matches

Acassuso away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegiales attack 1.18 + Acassuso defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Acassuso attack 0.95 + Colegiales defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colegiales scores more
41%
level
31%
Acassuso scores more
28%

Colegiales at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Colegiales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Colegiales 0–0 Acassuso

Colegiales and Acassuso drew 0-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Colegiales in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.