Coldstream 1–9 Jeanfield Swifts: Result & Stats

Coldstream

1 – 9

Jeanfield Swifts

8/10/2019

FA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundHome Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Coldstream5%

×Draw8%

Jeanfield Swifts87%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColdstreamExpected goals in this matchJeanfield Swifts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

4.36

Coldstream

1.11

Jeanfield Swifts

4.36

Jeanfield Swifts creates 293% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

0.80

creates per match

2.71

6.00

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Coldstream

0.80

Jeanfield Swifts

2.71

allows per match

Coldstream

6.00

Jeanfield Swifts

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coldstream+0.00on par

Jeanfield Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coldstream ↓

Jeanfield Swifts →

0–00%

0–12%

0–25%

0–37%

0–47%

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–45%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Coldstream or draw

13%

Coldstream or Jeanfield Swifts

92%

Draw or Jeanfield Swifts

95%

Winning margin

Coldstream wins by 2+

Jeanfield Swifts wins by 2+

73%

Team goals

Coldstream 1+ goals

67%

Coldstream 2+ goals

30%

Coldstream 3+ goals

10%

Jeanfield Swifts 1+ goals

98%

Jeanfield Swifts 2+ goals

92%

Jeanfield Swifts 3+ goals

78%

Draw no bet

Coldstream (draw refunded)

Jeanfield Swifts (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Coldstream at home — creates 0.80, concedes 6.00 · 5 matches

Jeanfield Swifts away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Coldstream attack 0.80 + Jeanfield Swifts defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Jeanfield Swifts attack 2.71 + Coldstream defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 4.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 87%?"

Coldstream scores more

level

Jeanfield Swifts scores more

87%

Jeanfield Swifts at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Jeanfield Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff