Colchester 1–2 Wrexham: Result & Stats | League Two

Colchester

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Wrexham

4/6/2024

League Two · Round 43JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Colchester40%

×Draw28%

Wrexham33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.13

Colchester

1.27

Wrexham

1.13

Colchester creates 12% more chances

Season form · 180 home / 23 away

1.37

creates per match

1.17

1.09

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Colchester

1.37

Wrexham

1.17

allows per match

Colchester

1.09

Wrexham

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

67%

Colchester or Wrexham

72%

Draw or Wrexham

60%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

18%

Wrexham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

72%

Colchester 2+ goals

36%

Colchester 3+ goals

14%

Wrexham 1+ goals

68%

Wrexham 2+ goals

31%

Wrexham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

55%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 180 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.37 + Wrexham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Wrexham attack 1.17 + Colchester defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Colchester scores more

40%

level

28%

Wrexham scores more

33%

Colchester at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff