Colchester 2–0 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tranmere

B. Ihionvien 87'

J. Taylor 11'

9/9/2023

League Two · Round 7JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Colchester45%

×Draw27%

Tranmere28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.07

Colchester

1.42

Tranmere

1.07

Colchester creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.41

creates per match

1.15

0.99

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Colchester

1.41

Tranmere

1.15

allows per match

Colchester

0.99

Tranmere

1.42

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more

Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

72%

Colchester or Tranmere

73%

Draw or Tranmere

55%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

22%

Tranmere wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

76%

Colchester 2+ goals

41%

Colchester 3+ goals

17%

Tranmere 1+ goals

66%

Tranmere 2+ goals

29%

Tranmere 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

61%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colchester scores more

45%

level

27%

Tranmere scores more

28%

Colchester at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Read

Colchester · M

8.5

Match Events

11'

15'

28'

39'

45+1'

45'

47'

55'

55'

R. McAlear← K. Dennis

57'

J. Mingi← C. McGeehan

71'

C. Wood← S. Taylor

71'

J. Hawkes← R. Hendry

72'

Mauro Bandeira← A. Read

83'

B. Ihionvien← S. Tovide

84'

W. Greenidge← A. Kazeem

84'

J. Akinde← J. Taylor

87'

B. Ihionvien

90+2'

R. Apter← K. Morris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterTranmere

Overview

50%Possession50%

27Total Shots10

11Corners5

10Fouls8

Shots

27Total Shots10

12On Target4

7Off Target5

8Blocked1

19Inside Box8

8Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

433Total Passes426

336Accurate Passes322

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves9

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0