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Colchester vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
J. Tchamadeu 90+5'
3/26/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 39JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Colchester45%
×Draw27%
Tranmere28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.42
Tranmere
1.07

Colchester creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.41
Tranmere
1.15

allows per match

Colchester
0.99
Tranmere
1.42

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more
Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
72%
Colchester or Tranmere
73%
Draw or Tranmere
55%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
22%
Tranmere wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
76%
Colchester 2+ goals
41%
Colchester 3+ goals
17%
Tranmere 1+ goals
66%
Tranmere 2+ goals
29%
Tranmere 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
61%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colchester scores more
45%
level
27%
Tranmere scores more
28%

Colchester at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
C. CoxeColchesterColchester · D
7.6

Match Events

53'
A. Judge← J. Akinde
73'
Cole Skuse
77'
C. Jolley← J. Hawkes
78'
T. Eastman← T. Dallison-Lisbon
82'
Luke Hannant
82'
Sam Foley
84'
Charlie Jolley
89'
J. Tchamadeu← L. Hannant
90+7'
Tom Davies
90+6'
Peter Clarke
90+5'
J. Tchamadeu↳ A. Judge

Possession

39%Colchester

Shots

6Colchester

Pass accuracy

43%Colchester

Statistics

ColchesterTranmere
Overview
39%Possession61%
6Total Shots12
4Corners9
8Fouls15
Shots
6Total Shots12
1On Target2
1Off Target5
4Blocked5
4Inside Box8
2Outside Box4
Passing
39%Possession61%
296Total Passes470
160Accurate Passes339
54%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
8Fouls15
2Yellow Cards4
2Offsides5

League Two: Colchester 1–0 Tranmere

Colchester beat Tranmere 1-0 in League Two on March 26, 2022.

Goals: J. Tchamadeu (90+5').

Tranmere controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.