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Colchester vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
Preview
15:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
2/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 31
Big match
43%
Colchester
model favours
43%26%31%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Colchester43%
×Draw26%
Swindon Town31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.44
Swindon Town
1.17

Colchester creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.41
Swindon Town
1.34

allows per match

Colchester
0.99
Swindon Town
1.46

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more
Swindon Town-0.01on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
69%
Colchester or Swindon Town
74%
Draw or Swindon Town
57%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
21%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
76%
Colchester 2+ goals
42%
Colchester 3+ goals
18%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
69%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
33%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
58%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Swindon Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Swindon Town attack 1.34 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colchester scores more
43%
level
26%
Swindon Town scores more
31%

Colchester at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Colchester
Balanced
Swindon Town
Attack-heavy
51%Possession53%
71%Pass accuracy72%
11.4Shots12.5
1.31xGBiggest gap1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ColchesterSwindon Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Colchester
4
Draws
2
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
3–00–02–34–02–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Colchester
LWWDW
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colchester vs Swindon Town — Match Preview

Colchester face Swindon Town on February 13, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.