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Colchester vs Sutton Utd — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
11/11/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 17JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Colchester48%
×Draw25%
Sutton Utd27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.56
Sutton Utd
1.10

Colchester creates 42% more chances

Season form · 180 home / 69 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.37
Sutton Utd
1.12

allows per match

Colchester
1.09
Sutton Utd
1.74

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
73%
Colchester or Sutton Utd
75%
Draw or Sutton Utd
52%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
25%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
79%
Colchester 2+ goals
46%
Colchester 3+ goals
21%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
67%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
30%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
64%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 180 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.37 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Colchester defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Colchester scores more
48%
level
25%
Sutton Utd scores more
27%

Colchester at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colchester vs Sutton Utd

Colchester and Sutton Utd drew 1-1 in League Two on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.