Colchester 1–3 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Sutton Utd

F. Sears 2'

B. Goodliffe 61'

R. Milsom 28' (pen)

D. Ajiboye 12'

10/26/2021

League Two · Round 6JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Colchester47%

×Draw26%

Sutton Utd28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.11

Colchester

1.53

Sutton Utd

1.11

Colchester creates 38% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 69 away

1.32

creates per match

1.12

1.10

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Colchester

1.32

Sutton Utd

1.12

allows per match

Colchester

1.10

Sutton Utd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

72%

Colchester or Sutton Utd

74%

Draw or Sutton Utd

53%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

24%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

78%

Colchester 2+ goals

45%

Colchester 3+ goals

20%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

67%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

30%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

63%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Colchester scores more

47%

level

26%

Sutton Utd scores more

28%

Colchester at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

R. Milsom

Sutton Utd · D

8.3

Match Events

2'

F. Sears↳ C. Daniels

5'

Luke Hannant

12'

D. Ajiboye↳ R. Milsom

27'

Samson Tovide

28'

R. MilsomPenalty

55'

Ben Goodliffe

57'

Tommy Smith

61'

B. Goodliffe↳ R. Milsom

66'

D. Wilson← I. Olaofe

67'

C. Coxe← L. Hannant

80'

T. Sho-Silva← Omar Bugiel

82'

Noah Chilvers

82'

F. Nouble← G. Kennedy

86'

K. Davis← J. Barden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterSutton

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots18

3Corners6

9Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots18

2On Target5

3Off Target8

4Blocked5

5Inside Box12

4Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

353Total Passes406

226Accurate Passes298

64%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2