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Colchester vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stevenage
Stevenage
K. Poku 83'
F. Nouble 82' (pen)
T. Eastman 48'
J. Cowley 17'
10/5/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 12JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Colchester44%
×Draw28%
Stevenage28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.28
Stevenage
0.95

Colchester creates 35% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 100 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.32
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Colchester
1.10
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
72%
Colchester or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
56%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
20%
Stevenage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
72%
Colchester 2+ goals
37%
Colchester 3+ goals
14%
Stevenage 1+ goals
61%
Stevenage 2+ goals
25%
Stevenage 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
61%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Colchester scores more
44%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
28%

Colchester at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45
F. NoubleColchesterColchester · M
7.9

Match Events

17'
J. Cowley
32'
Theo Robinson
48'
T. Eastman↳ T. Robinson
54'
E. Sonupe← T. Soares
66'
C. Mackail-Smith← J. Cowley
74'
Christopher Stokes
75'
L. Gambin← L. Norris
76'
B. Sarpong Wiredu← B. Stevenson
81'
Paul Farman
82'
F. NoublePenalty
83'
K. Poku↳ F. Nouble
85'
Noor Husin← M. Timlin
86'
J. Brown← F. Nouble
90'
Tom Eastman

Possession

55%Colchester

Shots

21Colchester

Pass accuracy

52%Colchester

Statistics

ColchesterStevenage
Overview
55%Possession45%
21Total Shots8
6Corners1
11Fouls11
Shots
21Total Shots8
5On Target2
12Off Target2
4Blocked4
13Inside Box2
8Outside Box6
Passing
55%Possession45%
450Total Passes370
342Accurate Passes255
76%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Colchester vs Stevenage

Colchester beat Stevenage 3-1 in League Two on October 5, 2019.

Goals: J. Cowley (17'), T. Eastman (48'), F. Nouble (82' pen), K. Poku (83').

Colchester controlled possession (55%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.