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Colchester vs Southend — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Southend
Southend
4/20/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 43JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Colchester45%
×Draw27%
Southend27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.37
Southend
1.00

Colchester creates 37% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 31 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.32
Southend
0.90

allows per match

Colchester
1.10
Southend
1.42

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Southend →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
73%
Colchester or Southend
73%
Draw or Southend
55%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
21%
Southend wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
75%
Colchester 2+ goals
40%
Colchester 3+ goals
16%
Southend 1+ goals
63%
Southend 2+ goals
26%
Southend 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
62%
Southend (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Southend away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Southend defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Southend attack 0.90 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colchester scores more
45%
level
27%
Southend scores more
27%

Colchester at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Colchester 2–0 Southend

Colchester beat Southend 2-0 in League Two on April 20, 2021.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.