Colchester 0–2 Salford City: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Salford City

T. Elliott 25'

B. Thomas-Asante 9'

10/2/2021

League Two · Round 10JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Colchester43%

×Draw25%

Salford City32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.27

Colchester

1.50

Salford City

1.27

Colchester creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.41

creates per match

1.55

0.99

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Colchester

1.41

Salford City

1.55

allows per match

Colchester

0.99

Salford City

1.58

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more

Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

68%

Colchester or Salford City

75%

Draw or Salford City

57%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

21%

Salford City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

78%

Colchester 2+ goals

44%

Colchester 3+ goals

19%

Salford City 1+ goals

72%

Salford City 2+ goals

36%

Salford City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

57%

Salford City (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Salford City attack 1.55 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colchester scores more

43%

level

25%

Salford City scores more

32%

Colchester at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

L. Shephard

Salford City · D

8.0

Match Events

9'

B. Thomas-Asante

25'

T. Elliott↳ L. Shephard

38'

Jordan Turnbull

50'

Matthew Lund

52'

T. Eastman← A. Dobra

52'

B. Sarpong-Wiredu← C. Coxe

59'

Brandon Thomas-Asante

76'

T. Wright← J. Morris

76'

D. Love← A. Hunter

80'

S. Jasper← N. Chilvers

88'

Brandon Thomas-Asante

88'

Brandon Thomas-Asante

90+2'

Sylvester Jasper

90'

M. Willock← M. Lund

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterSalford

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots17

3Corners3

13Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots17

3On Target7

4Off Target8

2Blocked2

6Inside Box13

3Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

405Total Passes392

288Accurate Passes278

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls18

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2