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Colchester vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Salford City
Salford City
12/7/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 20JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Colchester43%
×Draw25%
Salford City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.50
Salford City
1.27

Colchester creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.41
Salford City
1.55

allows per match

Colchester
0.99
Salford City
1.58

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more
Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
68%
Colchester or Salford City
75%
Draw or Salford City
57%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
21%
Salford City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
78%
Colchester 2+ goals
44%
Colchester 3+ goals
19%
Salford City 1+ goals
72%
Salford City 2+ goals
36%
Salford City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
57%
Salford City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Salford City attack 1.55 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colchester scores more
43%
level
25%
Salford City scores more
32%

Colchester at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colchester vs Salford City

Colchester beat Salford City 1-0 in League Two on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.