Colchester 2–3 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Peterborough

M. Oni 82'

J. Payne 32'

B. Khela 87'

H. Leonard 76' (pen)

O. Edwards 8'

7/21/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Colchester13%

×Draw16%

Peterborough70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

2.70

Colchester

1.11

Peterborough

2.70

Peterborough creates 143% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.14

creates per match

3.25

2.14

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Colchester

1.14

Peterborough

3.25

allows per match

Colchester

2.14

Peterborough

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

30%

Colchester or Peterborough

84%

Draw or Peterborough

87%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

5%

Peterborough wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

67%

Colchester 2+ goals

30%

Colchester 3+ goals

10%

Peterborough 1+ goals

93%

Peterborough 2+ goals

75%

Peterborough 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

16%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Peterborough away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.14 + Peterborough defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Peterborough attack 3.25 + Colchester defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Colchester scores more

13%

level

16%

Peterborough scores more

70%

Peterborough at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

O. Edwards

32'

J. Payne

76'

H. LeonardPenalty

82'

M. Oni

87'

B. Khela

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff