Colchester 1–4 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Peterborough

G. Moncur 76'

M. Maddison 90+4'

S. Coulthirst 69'

A. Fox 67'

J. Taylor 2'

4/16/2016

League One · Round 42Weston Homes Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Colchester34%

×Draw25%

Peterborough40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.45

Colchester

1.32

Peterborough

1.45

Peterborough creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 157 away

1.19

creates per match

1.46

1.44

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Colchester

1.19

Peterborough

1.46

allows per match

Colchester

1.44

Peterborough

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

60%

Colchester or Peterborough

75%

Draw or Peterborough

66%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

15%

Peterborough wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

73%

Colchester 2+ goals

38%

Colchester 3+ goals

15%

Peterborough 1+ goals

77%

Peterborough 2+ goals

42%

Peterborough 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

46%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.19 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Colchester defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Colchester scores more

34%

level

25%

Peterborough scores more

40%

Peterborough at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

J. Taylor↳ M. Maddison

26'

Ricardo Almeida Santos

36'

Jack Baldwin

43'

Nicky Shorey

58'

Marcus Maddison

64'

D. Ambrose← T. Lapslie

65'

A. Fox← M. Smith

66'

S. Coulthirst← A. Williams

67'

A. Fox

69'

S. Coulthirst↳ J. Taylor

72'

O. Akinwande← C. Porter

72'

75'

76'

82'

90'

90+4'

Colchester

Peterborough

1

Alnwick

2

▼

6

12

8

16

7

⚽A

Taylor

33

Forrester

10

▼

Oztumer

41

▼

Williams

11

⚽A

33

31

4

18

15

2

11

▼

Massey

10

⚽

Moncur

20

▼

Lapslie

9

▼

Porter

12

Lee

64'▲D. Ambrose←▼T. Lapslie

72'▲O. Akinwande←▼C. Porter

72'▲M. Bonne←▼G. Massey

Colchester substitutes

28Ambrose16Akinwande19Bonne7Wright24Brindley25Barnes32Chambers

65'▲A. Fox←▼M. Smith

66'▲S. Coulthirst←▼A. Williams

75'▲L. Lopes←▼E. Oztumer

Peterborough substitutes

18Fox39Coulthirst22Lopes5Zakuani14Tyler24Angol36Samuelsen