Colchester 1–0 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Peterborough

G. Moncur 90+1'

12/7/2014

League #45 · 2nd RoundWeston Homes Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Colchester34%

×Draw24%

Peterborough41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.58

Colchester

1.42

Peterborough

1.58

Peterborough creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

1.67

1.50

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Colchester

1.50

Peterborough

1.67

allows per match

Colchester

1.50

Peterborough

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

59%

Colchester or Peterborough

76%

Draw or Peterborough

66%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

16%

Peterborough wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

76%

Colchester 2+ goals

41%

Colchester 3+ goals

17%

Peterborough 1+ goals

79%

Peterborough 2+ goals

47%

Peterborough 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

45%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.50 + Peterborough defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Peterborough attack 1.67 + Colchester defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colchester scores more

34%

level

24%

Peterborough scores more

41%

Peterborough at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

81'

R. Healey← G. Massey

90+3'

S. Clohessy← S. Watt

90+3'

K. Vassell← G. Zakuani

90+3'

L. James← J. Payne

90+1'

G. Moncur↳ E. Hewitt

Colchester

Peterborough

27

Alnwick

25

▼

3

21

6

8

▼

17

15

10

20

14

1

13

6

18

41

A

Hewitt

42

Kpekawa

38

Fox

7

▼

Watt

21

▼

Massey

24

⚽

Moncur

11

Sears

81'▲R. Healey←▼G. Massey

90+3'▲S. Clohessy←▼S. Watt

Colchester substitutes

19Healey20Clohessy28Szmodics27Bonne12Lewington35O'Donoghue37Sembie-Ferris

90+3'▲K. Vassell←▼G. Zakuani

90+3'▲L. James←▼J. Payne

Peterborough substitutes

12Vassell9James2Smith32Henry19Mendez-Laing22Ricardo37Lopes