Colchester 1–1 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mansfield Town

F. Sears 90+5' (pen)

E. Hewitt 72'

8/17/2021

League Two · Round 3JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 141+ matches

Colchester38%

×Draw28%

Mansfield Town35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.18

Colchester

1.24

Mansfield Town

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 161 home / 141 away

1.32

creates per match

1.25

1.10

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Colchester

1.32

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Colchester

1.10

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

65%

Colchester or Mansfield Town

72%

Draw or Mansfield Town

62%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

16%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

71%

Colchester 2+ goals

35%

Colchester 3+ goals

13%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

69%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

33%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

52%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Colchester scores more

38%

level

28%

Mansfield Town scores more

35%

Colchester at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Judge

Colchester · M

7.3

Match Events

35'

C. Coxe← T. Eastman

58'

Cole Skuse

59'

C. Daniels← R. Clampin

68'

Stephen Quinn

72'

E. Hewitt↳ S. Quinn

74'

S. Jasper← L. Hannant

79'

R. Stirk← G. Lapslie

82'

O. Hawkins← D. Johnson

87'

J. Bowery← R. Oates

90+4'

James Perch

90+5'

F. SearsPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterMansfield

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots17

3Corners6

7Fouls19

Shots

10Total Shots17

4On Target5

3Off Target6

3Blocked6

5Inside Box11

5Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

380Total Passes404

254Accurate Passes279

67%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls19

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1