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Colchester vs Macclesfield — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Macclesfield
Macclesfield
1/18/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 28JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Colchester52%
×Draw26%
Macclesfield22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.55
Macclesfield
0.91

Colchester creates 70% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 18 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.32
Macclesfield
0.72

allows per match

Colchester
1.10
Macclesfield
1.78

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Macclesfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
78%
Colchester or Macclesfield
74%
Draw or Macclesfield
48%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
27%
Macclesfield wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
79%
Colchester 2+ goals
46%
Colchester 3+ goals
20%
Macclesfield 1+ goals
60%
Macclesfield 2+ goals
23%
Macclesfield 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
70%
Macclesfield (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Macclesfield defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.55

Macclesfield attack 0.72 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Colchester scores more
52%
level
26%
Macclesfield scores more
22%

Colchester at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colchester vs Macclesfield

Colchester beat Macclesfield 2-1 in League Two on January 18, 2020.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.