Colchester 0–1 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Crawley Town

J. Payne 22'

9/18/2021

League Two · Round 8JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Colchester46%

×Draw25%

Crawley Town29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.21

Colchester

1.60

Crawley Town

1.21

Colchester creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.41

creates per match

1.42

0.99

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Colchester

1.41

Crawley Town

1.42

allows per match

Colchester

0.99

Crawley Town

1.79

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more

Crawley Town-0.57scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

71%

Colchester or Crawley Town

75%

Draw or Crawley Town

54%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

24%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

80%

Colchester 2+ goals

47%

Colchester 3+ goals

22%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

70%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

34%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

62%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Crawley Town defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.60

Crawley Town attack 1.42 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Colchester scores more

46%

level

25%

Crawley Town scores more

29%

Colchester at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Powell

Crawley Town · M

7.7

Match Events

22'

J. Payne↳ W. Ferry

26'

Sam Ashford

45+3'

Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu

45+3'

Will Ferry

46'

A. Nadesan← S. Ashford

66'

A. Dobra← B. Sarpong-Wiredu

82'

N. Chilvers← S. Jasper

84'

Tom Nichols

84'

K. Appiah← T. Nichols

89'

L. Hannant← C. Coxe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterCrawley

Overview

56%Possession44%

13Total Shots14

8Corners6

13Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target6

5Off Target5

4Blocked3

9Inside Box12

4Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

441Total Passes357

329Accurate Passes242

75%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0