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Colchester vs Barrow — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barrow
Barrow
5/3/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 46JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Colchester45%
×Draw27%
Barrow28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.41
Barrow
1.04

Colchester creates 36% more chances

Season form · 180 home / 138 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.37
Barrow
0.99

allows per match

Colchester
1.09
Barrow
1.44

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
72%
Colchester or Barrow
73%
Draw or Barrow
55%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
22%
Barrow wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
76%
Colchester 2+ goals
41%
Colchester 3+ goals
17%
Barrow 1+ goals
65%
Barrow 2+ goals
28%
Barrow 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
62%
Barrow (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 180 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.37 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Barrow attack 0.99 + Colchester defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colchester scores more
45%
level
27%
Barrow scores more
28%

Colchester at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colchester vs Barrow

Colchester and Barrow drew 0-0 in League Two on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.