Colchester 1–1 Barrow: Result & Stats | League Two

Colchester

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Barrow

K. Appiah 90+6'

B. Whitfield 56'

2/4/2023

League Two · Round 30JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Colchester54%

×Draw24%

Barrow21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.93

Colchester

1.66

Barrow

0.93

Colchester creates 78% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

1.41

creates per match

0.87

0.99

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Colchester

1.41

Barrow

0.87

allows per match

Colchester

0.99

Barrow

1.91

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more

Barrow+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

79%

Colchester or Barrow

76%

Draw or Barrow

46%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

30%

Barrow wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

81%

Colchester 2+ goals

49%

Colchester 3+ goals

23%

Barrow 1+ goals

61%

Barrow 2+ goals

24%

Barrow 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

72%

Barrow (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Barrow defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.66

Barrow attack 0.87 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Colchester scores more

54%

level

24%

Barrow scores more

21%

Colchester at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

K. Appiah

Colchester · F

7.2

Match Events

46'

Rory Feely

56'

B. Whitfield↳ R. Feely

59'

66'

69'

69'

70'

73'

74'

75'

76'

76'

77'

78'

79'

A. Newby← C. Wood

81'

81'

90+3'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterBarrow

Overview

56%Possession44%

7Total Shots12

8Corners8

13Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots12

3On Target3

3Off Target5

1Blocked4

6Inside Box5

1Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

26Total Passes20

14Accurate Passes14

54%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1