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Colchester vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
Preview
14:00
Barnet
Barnet
3/29/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 38
Big match
45%
Colchester
model favours
45%26%29%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Colchester45%
×Draw26%
Barnet29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.48
Barnet
1.14

Colchester creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.53
Barnet
1.40

allows per match

Colchester
0.87
Barnet
1.43

finishing

Colchester+0.14scores more
Barnet-0.15scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Barnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
71%
Colchester or Barnet
74%
Draw or Barnet
55%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
22%
Barnet wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
77%
Colchester 2+ goals
43%
Colchester 3+ goals
19%
Barnet 1+ goals
68%
Barnet 2+ goals
32%
Barnet 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
61%
Barnet (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.87 · 12 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.53 + Barnet defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Barnet attack 1.40 + Colchester defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colchester scores more
45%
level
26%
Barnet scores more
29%

Colchester at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • 70% of Barnet’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Colchester
Balanced
Barnet
Possession-dominant
50%Possession55%
71%Pass accuracy68%
11.3Shots13.7
1.32xGBiggest gap1.72
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ColchesterBarnet

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

3
Colchester
2
Draws
2
Barnet
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 71%
4–11–10–11–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Colchester
LWWDW
Barnet
DDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colchester vs Barnet — Match Preview

Colchester face Barnet on March 29, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.