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Barnet vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Barnet
Barnet
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Colchester
Colchester
D. Collinge 90'
J. Tucker 9'
8/30/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 6The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Barnet53%
×Draw23%
Colchester24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.87
Colchester
1.18

Barnet creates 58% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Barnet
2.12
Colchester
1.08

allows per match

Barnet
1.28
Colchester
1.62

finishing

Barnet-0.12scores less
Colchester+0.19scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
76%
Barnet or Colchester
77%
Draw or Colchester
47%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
30%
Colchester wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
85%
Barnet 2+ goals
56%
Barnet 3+ goals
29%
Colchester 1+ goals
69%
Colchester 2+ goals
33%
Colchester 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
69%
Colchester (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.28 · 10 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.62 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.12 + Colchester defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.87

Colchester attack 1.08 + Barnet defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Barnet scores more
53%
level
23%
Colchester scores more
24%

Barnet at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
J. TuckerColchesterColchester · D
8.7

Match Events

9'
J. Tucker↳ H. Anderson
39'
Ryan Glover
68'
L. Ndlovu← A. Hartigan
74'
K. Lisbie← S. Tovide
75'
D. Gape← T. Bishop
80'
K. Smith← O. Hawkins
81'
D. Adeniran← N. Ofoborh
82'
A. Akande← O. Edwards
88'
R. Galvin← R. Glover
90+5'
Adam Senior
90+1'
J. Williams← J. Payne
90'
D. Collinge↳ I. Kanu

Possession

63%Barnet

Shots

15Barnet

Pass accuracy

56%Barnet

Statistics

BarnetColchester
Overview
63%Possession37%
15Total Shots7
8Corners3
16Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots7
6On Target2
5Off Target3
4Blocked2
8Inside Box3
7Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
353Total Passes216
247Accurate Passes122
70%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls12
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides5

League Two: Barnet 1–1 Colchester

Barnet and Colchester drew 1-1 in League Two on August 30, 2025.

Goals: J. Tucker (9'), D. Collinge (90').

Barnet controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Hive Stadium in London.