Colchester 1–3 Barnet: Result & Stats | League #46

Colchester

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Barnet

P. Baldwin 16'

S. Kabba 74'

I. McLeod 19' (pen)

R. Holmes 7'

8/30/2011

League #46 · 1st RoundWeston Homes Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Colchester32%

×Draw25%

Barnet44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchBarnet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.59

Colchester

1.32

Barnet

1.59

Barnet creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

0.89

creates per match

1.75

1.44

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Colchester

0.89

Barnet

1.75

allows per match

Colchester

1.44

Barnet

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Barnet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Barnet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

56%

Colchester or Barnet

75%

Draw or Barnet

68%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

14%

Barnet wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

73%

Colchester 2+ goals

38%

Colchester 3+ goals

15%

Barnet 1+ goals

80%

Barnet 2+ goals

47%

Barnet 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

42%

Barnet (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 0.89 + Barnet defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.32

Barnet attack 1.75 + Colchester defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Colchester scores more

32%

level

25%

Barnet scores more

44%

Barnet at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

R. Holmes

16'

P. Baldwin

19'

I. McLeodPenalty

59'

K. Odejayi← M. Antonio

68'

S. Kabba← S. Deering

69'

A. Wordsworth← A. Bond

74'

S. Kabba

83'

T. Eastman← M. Heath

89'

D. Dennehy← R. Holmes

90+1'

C. Taylor← M. Marshall

Colchester

Barnet

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

59'▲K. Odejayi←▼M. Antonio

69'▲A. Wordsworth←▼A. Bond

83'▲T. Eastman←▼M. Heath

Colchester substitutes

OdejayiWordsworthEastmanWhiteDuguid

68'▲S. Kabba←▼S. Deering

89'▲D. Dennehy←▼R. Holmes

90+1'▲C. Taylor←▼M. Marshall

Barnet substitutes

KabbaDennehyTaylorO'BrienVilhete

Match Recap: Colchester vs Barnet

Barnet beat Colchester 3-1 in League #46 on August 30, 2011.

Goals: R. Holmes (7'), P. Baldwin (16'), I. McLeod (19' pen), S. Kabba (74').

The match was played at Weston Homes Community Stadium.

Colchester vs Barnet — League #46 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Colchester vs Barnet